WASHINGTON — In its Feb. 9 World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates report, the US Division of Agriculture made principally minor, off-setting, by-class modifications to wheat exports, imports, and meals use. In consequence, the all-wheat 2021 carryover projection for 2021 was unchanged from the January report.
The carryover of US wheat on June 1, 2021, was forecast at 836 million bus, unchanged from the January estimate and down 192 million bus, or 19%, from 1,028 million bus in 2019-20.
Home all-wheat provide and demand forecasts had been left unchanged from January, together with starting shares at 1,028 million bus, manufacturing at 1,826 million bus, and imports at 120 million bus, for a complete provide of two,974 million bus.
Forecasts for meals, seed, and feed and residual use of all-wheat additionally had been unchanged from January at 965 million, 63 million and 125 million bus, respectively, for a complete home use of 1,153 million bus in contrast with 1,123 million bus in 2019-20.
US wheat exports in 2020-21 had been projected unchanged from January at 985 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 2%, from 965 million bus in 2020.
The USDA made principally minor changes to its projections for home arduous crimson winter, arduous crimson spring, smooth crimson winter, white and durum wheat lessons. The category modifications in the end offset one another.
In feedback accompanying the newest supply-demand forecasts, the USDA mentioned the arduous crimson winter wheat export projection was diminished based mostly on “a continued gradual tempo,” whereas arduous crimson spring wheat and white wheat exports had been raised “based mostly on stronger-than-expected gross sales and shipments, notably to China.”
For arduous crimson winter wheat, the USDA projected a 28-million-bu improve in ending shares based mostly on a 3-million-bu decline in home use and a 25-million-bu decline in forecast exports.
The USDA projected a 21-million-bu lower in arduous crimson spring wheat ending shares based mostly on 3-million-bu discount in whole provide, a 15-million-bu improve in exports, and a 3-million-bu improve in home use.
The USDA projected a 10-million-bu lower in white wheat ending shares on a like improve in exports.
The USDA projected a 1-million-bu improve in smooth crimson winter wheat ending shares because of a like lower in home use.
For durum wheat, the USDA projected a 2-million-bu improve in ending shares as a 3-million-bu improve in whole provide was partly offset by a 1-million-bu improve in home use.
The USDA indicated durum imports had been raised and arduous crimson spring wheat imports had been lowered based mostly on the tempo of commerce to this point. Meals use for each lessons had been raised whereas meals use of arduous crimson winter and smooth crimson winter wheat lessons had been lowered, modifications the USDA mentioned had been attributed for essentially the most half to the NASS Flour Millings Merchandise report and Census commerce knowledge.