WASHINGTON — The US Division of Agriculture in its June World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates report lowered its forecasts for each 2020-21 and 2021-22 corn ending shares whereas it raised its forecasts for soybean ending shares for each years. The brand new forecasts had been supportive to corn futures however bearish for soybean futures.
The USDA projected the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2022, at 1,357 million bus, down 150 million bus from the Could outlook however up 250 million bus, or 23%, from 1,107 million bus because the revised forecast for 2021. The typical of pre-report commerce estimates for the 2022 carryover was 1,423 million bus.
The one adjustment from Could to the 2021-2022 corn provide forecasts was the 150-million-bu discount to the 2021-22 carry-in provide, based mostly on the decrease forecast for 2020-21 ending shares.
The USDA forecast 2021 corn manufacturing at 14,990 million bus, unchanged from Could and up 6% from 14,182 million bus in 2020. The forecast was based mostly on a projected harvested space of 83.5 million acres and forecast trendline yield at 179.5 bus per acre. With corn imports for 2021-22 forecast at 25 million bus, the USDA projected the overall 2021-22 corn provide at 16,122 million bus, down 150 million bus from the Could projection due to the smaller carry-in provide and down 2 million bus from 2020-21. All demand-side forecasts for 2021-22 had been unchanged from Could with feed and residual use at 5,700 million bus; meals, seed and industrial use at 6,615 million bus, together with 5,200 million bus for ethanol, and exports at 2,450 million bus.
The 150-million-bu discount in forecast 2020-21 corn ending shares from Could was resulting from a 75-million-bu hike in forecast use for ethanol to five,050 million bus and a 75-million-bu enhance in forecast exports to a document 2,850 million bus.
The USDA forecast the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2022, at 155 million bus, up 15 million bus from the Could outlook and up 20 million bus from an upwardly raised forecast for the 2021 carryover at 135 million bus. The typical of pre-report commerce estimates for the 2022 soybean carryover was 146 million bus.
The USDA forecast soybean manufacturing in 2021 at 4,405 million bus, unchanged from Could and up 270 million bus, or 7%, from 4,135 million bus in 2020. The forecast was based mostly on a projected harvested space of 86.7 million acres and a trendline yield at 50.eight bus per acre. With soybean imports forecast unchanged from Could at 35 million bus, the USDA projected the overall soybean provide in 2021-22 at 4,575 million bus due to the upper carry-in forecast. All demand forecasts for 2021-22 had been unchanged from Could with crushings at 2,225 million bus, exports at 2,075 million bus, seed use at 104 million bus, and residual use at 15 million bus.
The 15-million-bu hike within the USDA’s forecast for the 2021 soybean carryover to 135 million bus was resulting from a lower in forecast 2020-21 soybean crushings to 2,175 million bus.