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Aaron Rodgers sat on his sofa final Sunday and watched the snow come down in Inexperienced Bay. He checked his cellphone’s climate app to see what the chances have been that the snow would proceed into that night’s sport towards the Titans, hoping that it was going to final.
It did, in fact, and Rodgers felt simply at house. In a efficiency that can in all probability put him excessive for his third profession MVP award, Rodgers led the Packers to a 40-14 win over Tennessee and one step nearer to securing home-field benefit all through the NFC playoffs alongside a first-round bye. The Packers can clinch the highest seed with a win towards Chicago or a Seattle loss this weekend.
In a season the place home-field benefit has just about disappeared throughout the league, and for a crew just like the Inexperienced Bay that does not want way more than an abacus to depend attendance the previous couple of weeks, I imagine the Packers will revenue greater than most groups by getting the No. 1 seed if and when Week 17’s outcomes bear that out.
“I believe all of us heard sufficient about us not beating sufficient good groups. Not responding and enjoying an entire sport, and this was our response,” Rodgers stated after the win. “I be ok with the place we’re at. It is robust to play within the chilly and it is robust to play in Lambeau.”
I wrote extensively earlier than the beginning of the season concerning the impression the shortage of followers would have on home-field benefit. Research have proven the best driver of home-field benefit is the followers’ affect on officers. And with no or few followers within the stands — and particularly with tarps covering the first several rows of seating — that affect would theoretically disappear.
This yr, house groups are 120-119-1 going into Week 17. That is the closest margin of the final decade not less than. House groups have outscored the guests 5,944 factors to five,910 factors this yr, so only one extra highway crew profitable on Sunday and blowing out the house crew will basically make this yr a wash.
It is not simply due to empty stadiums that we’re seeing such tight margins, although. Final yr, house groups went 132-123-1 and have been truly outscored by 30 factors. What we all know for sure is that home-field benefit just isn’t well worth the three factors it as soon as was, and this yr it hasn’t even been well worth the 2.5 factors or so it had been adjusted to. House groups are 117-123 towards the unfold this yr, so betting markets by no means actually figured it out.
Inexperienced Bay, New Orleans and Seattle are all within the operating for the No. 1 seed, and all exhibited better-than-expected home-field benefits this season, relative to the remainder of the league and adjusted for opponent power. These numbers come to me with (all of the) assist from Robby Greer, who does strategic analytics for a Silicon Valley startup and who holds an econ diploma from Vanderbilt and MBA from Dartmouth. We labored collectively on my earlier home-field benefit article, and I reached out to him this week for assistance on this one.
“Given climate, bye week and slight home-field benefit, I believe you’d in all probability have a look at 1.5 to 2 factors (of benefit for Inexperienced Bay) relying on the opponent,” Greer says. “That appears low however within the context of 2020 that is truly fairly huge home-field benefit.”
The Packers have had not more than 1,000 followers within the stands since Thanksgiving, and people individuals embody well being care employees, first responders and crew workers and their households. Group officers have but to make a name on what number of followers, if any, might be allowed into Lambeau for the playoffs, nevertheless it’s exhausting to think about they will go from a number of hundred to greater than 10,000 individuals.
If home-field benefit is pushed largely by packed crowds, and nobody exterior of Dallas has any greater than a pair thousand followers within the stands, then what does enjoying at house actually imply for the result of the sport?
The one tried and true home-field benefit throughout sports activities has been noticed in Denver because of the altitude. So what if Inexperienced Bay presents some kind of perceptible home-field benefit with windy, chilly and/or snowy circumstances?
“I believe that the chilly is one thing that we all the time embrace right here, and simply that is what we observe in, that is what we reside in every single day,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur stated after the Titans win. “So, our guys embrace that. It is simply we have had some unhealthy climate video games, extra so when it comes to the wind. That’s one thing that I believe is just a little bit tougher than all of the snow that is on the market tonight. Clearly, I believe simply guys having the right footing in these kinds of conditions, I believe is crucial.”
Rodgers used to speak with former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy concerning the utility of huge backs in poor climate circumstances. From Ahman Inexperienced to Ryan Grant, from Eddie Lacy to AJ Dillon, Inexperienced Bay has usually had an enormous again to deal with the load when the sector forces the sport plan to be adjusted.
When the tarp is faraway from the sector in pregame, the snow begins to get into the grass and make the sector slicker. If it is chilly (and colder than it was Sunday towards Tennessee), the sector might begin to freeze and make it even slicker. The ball can also be slicker and more durable to throw within the wind, so the crew that is extra acquainted and cozy with these circumstances would clearly have a leg up.
The Packers are 15-5 at house within the Super Bowl period, and Rodgers is 4-2 as a playoff starter at house. Inexperienced Bay completed 7-1 at house this yr with the lone loss to Minnesota in Week 8.
However Greer dove deeper than that and crunched the numbers from 1999 to at this time. He discovered that the Packers have a 1.49-point home-field benefit in common season video games performed after Nov. 1 than in video games performed in September and October.
“You have a look at that Inexperienced Bay knowledge from 1999, a pretty big pattern, and granted there’s a variety of volatility in these numbers, however on common their home-field benefit in November and December is sort of a bit increased. A full level and a half,” Greer says. “There could possibly be one thing there and one thing to that. Possibly the No. 1 seed could be price just a little bit extra to Inexperienced Bay [than others], particularly a crew like New Orleans and a quarterback like Drew Brees who, for all of his strengths, doesn’t have a superb arm.”
The best benefit of all, in fact, is the first-round bye for under the No. 1 seed. When the expanded playoffs have been first proposed, I assumed taking the first-round bye from the No. 2 seed would create too great an advantage for the highest seed. Sure, the common season ought to matter, however giving only one crew every week off and having the opposite six play opening week felt just like the league was beginning the postseason with too giant of an imbalance.
The best piece I noticed written about this was from Soccer Perspective’s Chase Stuart. He discovered that the probabilities of the highest seed making the Tremendous Bowl on this new format in comparison with the earlier format had elevated by 5%. In the meantime, the probabilities of the No. 2 seed to get to the Tremendous Bowl decreased by 11.2%. The final two Tremendous Bowl winners have been each the 2 seeds of their convention playoffs, by the way in which.
This piece was written earlier than the pandemic hit, and it doesn’t bear in mind the impact of empty stadiums on postseason efficiency. We have by no means seen something prefer it, so any guess at the way it will have an effect on the play is simply that. However nevertheless you weigh home-field benefit, there is not any query the No. 1 seed’s probabilities of making the playoffs has elevated and the No. 2 seed’s has decreased.
The benefit of enjoying at house within the NFL has by no means been so slim. Add into the combo climate circumstances which are distinctive to Inexperienced Bay amongst its potential NFC opponents together with all that comes with the No. 1 seed in at this time’s NFL, and also you get what will be the best home-field benefit of all in a bizarre 2020 season.
“I’ve performed in a variety of these video games so I really feel fairly good about with the ability to throw it ought to we’ve got snow and wind like we did at this time,” Rodgers stated after Sunday’s win. “That is simply one thing we’re used to. We observe open air. We play in some of these video games.”
To the picks!
I went 10-6 final week in an up-and-down week that noticed me choose the Jets to win but additionally choose Dwayne Haskins to beat an NFL team. I am now 161-78-1 going into the ultimate week of the common season. This week has an opportunity to be a catastrophe primarily based off who rests their starters and when. Ah, nicely. Let’s do it!
Dolphins at Bills
1 p.m., Sunday, CBS
That is the toughest sport of all to select this week. For me it comes right down to this: the Payments have been contemplating these ultimate video games just like the postseason already. They’re enjoying just like the second-best crew within the NFL — not simply the AFC. I do not see Buffalo slowing its momentum, and I imagine Miami will want some assist Sunday so as to get into the playoffs.
The choose: Payments
Jets at Patriots
1 p.m., Sunday, CBS
If the Jets had both Frank Gore or La’Mical Perine out there for this sport, I could very nicely choose the Preventing Adam Gases to complete the season on a three-game win streak. However I simply do not know the way the Jets are going to maintain the Pats protection guessing with no dependable operating again. Invoice Belichick is sort of executed having to reply questions on his quarterback for one more four-or-so months.
The choose: Patriots
Cardinals at Rams
4:25 p.m., Sunday, FOX
Whenever you construct your crew like the Rams do, you wind up with a backup quarterback like John Wolford. His safety blanket would usually be Cooper Kupp however he will not be enjoying. If the Rams wish to get again into the playoffs, they higher hope the Bears cannot discover a technique to beat the Packers — which they will not.
The choose: Cardinals
Football Team at Eagles
8:20 p.m., Sunday, NBC
If it is Alex Smith underneath heart Washington and he is wholesome, I reserve the best to alter my thoughts. Doug Pederson is aware of the strain is on and I imagine he occurs to be a coach who would not should get fired. By advantage of his play, Jalen Hurts has made for a really attention-grabbing offseason coming in Philadelphia. I believe that continues Sunday evening by eliminating the Washington Soccer Group from playoff rivalry.
The choose: Eagles
Cowboys at Giants
1 p.m., Sunday, FOX
It is the Jason Garrett (post-COVID-19) Revenge Sport! The Giants have dropped seven straight to the Cowboys, however this sport is a straightforward one for me to select. New York homes the higher quarterback, higher protection and higher head coach. Make room to your new NFC East champs.
The choose: Giants
The remainder
Buccaneers over Falcons
Titans over Texans
Packers over Bears
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